Forecasters have warned there is a “lot more rain to come” as a low-pressure system moves from southwestern Western Australia to the southeast as we head into the weekend.
But that may be just a taster of things to come.
This system could be the building blocks for the formation next week of an east coast low, essentially a cyclone outside of tropical waters. If that happens, expect huge winds, torrential rain with up to 100mm falling leading to floods.
“Severe weather is a possibility,” said Sky News Weather meteorologist Rob Sharpe this morning.
A cold front is currently over southern parts of WA, bringing showers to the state’s southern tip although Perth is remaining dry for the next few days.
That front is travelling east and it has moisture in mind for Melbourne, as well as Adelaide and Canberra and maybe even a bit for Brisbane and Sydney too.
Mr Sharpe said the upcoming initial “rain event” should hit the southeast from Friday onwards.
EAST COAST LOW WARNING
However it’s Monday when the real trouble could start.
The system bringing that rain for the weekend could then head out to the Tasman where one forecasting model has it deepening and getting angrier, Mr Sharpe said.
East coast lows have many of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone but because they are not formed in tropical waters, they’re not referred to as that. It doesn’t mean they can’t pack a punch though.
“At this early stage, if an east coast low does develop, the greatest chance of seeing heavy rainfall in excess of 100mm is from the south coast of NSW to the Hunter on Monday and Tuesday, but we’ll have to wait another day or two for this forecast to firm up.”
“There’s the threat of heavy rain turning into flooding, damaging wind gusts along the coastal fringe and very large seas as well.”
Currently the Bureau of Meteorology is indeed forecasting some wet conditions for Sydney early next week with 15mm falling on Monday and then more into Tuesday.
Much of the south and east will have a soggy starter before the main course of the storm.
“An upper cold pool will rise up (from The Bight) and across into South Australia on Friday, and then across southeastern parts of Australia through the weekend,” said Mr Sharpe.
Parts of NSW and Victoria could see rain on Saturday and then Queensland on Sunday.
“From this rain event many drought-affected regions will see a nice top-up to keep them going. Widespread falls of 5-30mm are likely for the Darling Downs, Granite Belt, the NSW slopes, plains and Riverina and northeastern Victoria with heavier falls possible on the eastern side of the ranges and along the coast,” he told news.com.au.
It will be dry for the next couple of days in Adelaide with highs of 16C and lows of 5C. Similar temperatures for the weekend but the skies will open on Friday with showers on Saturday and Sunday too.
Expect settled conditions in Melbourne with maximums of 16C and minimums of 6-8C until Saturday when a shower or two can be expected with the mercury struggling to breach 13C.
Tasmania should avoid much of the rain with sunny days and highs of 13C although expect chilly mornings of 2C in Hobart. Some rain could fall on Sunday, however.
Light frost in Canberra as dawn temperatures drop towards zero. Highs of around 13C. Some rain will sweep through on Friday and Saturday.
For the rest of this week,Sydney should be cloudy with some sun and a possible light shower on Sunday. Maximums will be around 20C with lows of 9C.
Inland parts of NSW could see quite a bit of moisture with this system. Dubbo is looking at possibly as much as 15mm of rain on Friday followed by 6mm on Saturday. Tamworth could get up to 10mm both days.
Hopping over the border, the Granite Belt and Darling Downs of Queensland could also see some healthy falls on Sunday.
Isolated showers will be a feature in Brisbane for the next few days with up to 6mm falling on Sunday as that system brushes past. It could get to 24C on Sunday with 21C on Thursday and minimums in the low teens.
It will be a warm and sunny 32C in Darwin for the coming days with mild 22C overnight temperatures.
Highs in the Perth CBD of around 17-20C with a nippy 4C on Saturday morning. It will get warmer on Sunday, up to 23C, but wetter too. As much as 25mm could fall on Tuesday, with a possible storm.